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Envisioning the 2020 Census

The net undercount of the population measured by the demographic analysis method decreased from 2. Moreover, the difference in net undercount rates between African-Americans and all others decreased from 4. These figures mask large numbers of offsetting errors of omission: Given trends that make census-taking more difficult, it is unlikely that the increased costs anticipated for the census will achieve much, if any, further increase in quality.

Changes in the U. They include increased immigration, including illegal immigration, and therefore the existence of communities that are wary of cooperating with the census and in which English is not the primary language. Changing norms in residence and living arrangements have also complicated the concept of a single, usual place of residence for many people, including children in joint custody, people with seasonal homes, and commuter workers or couples who maintain a separate workweek residence.

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Nevertheless, important dynamics are dramatically changing the environment in which the census is taken, offering opportunities to make the census markedly more cost effective. It is difficult to paint a reliable picture now of the United States in , but it is easy to conceive of the Internet as being the primary method for communication and conducting household business for the great majority of residents, combined with the likelihood that a large fraction of U.

It is also likely that administrative records will provide timely, high-quality, and inexpensive information that would be a useful input to a variety of census operations. The evaluations of census procedures in and especially were limited in usefulness for future census planning, consisting largely of descriptive reports that documented the inputs and outputs of particular procedures but did not provide rigorous cost-benefit analysis of them or an assessment of their relative effectiveness for different kinds of geographic areas or population groups. Save for the pilot work that had been done on the ACS, this emergent strategy for did not extend directly from the census evaluations and experiments for the simple reason that it could not do so chronologically—most of the evaluation reports were only completed and released in and However, findings from the census experience would later influence census plans—for instance, in the decision to add two coverage probe questions to the census questionnaire.

The reengineered process hinged critically on three major initiatives. First, the Census Bureau planned to modernize its Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing TIGER system—the geographic database used to map census addresses and code them to specific census blocks and thus to higher-level aggregates like cities or school districts.

When it was developed in the s, TIGER represented a significant improvement over the patchwork address coding guides that were used in the and censuses, but after almost 20 years of use, it needed realignment of its geographic data through comparison with local geographic information system files and overhaul of its software structure. Second, the Census Bureau committed to replacing the census long-form sample—a detailed battery of social and economic questions administered to samples of census respondents—with the continuous American Community Survey.

The Census Supplementary Survey, conducted in about one-third of all counties, confirmed that the Bureau could successfully field the ACS and the decennial census at the same time. This larger-scale administration also yielded data that could be compared with the long-form sample to assess the adequacy of the new survey. Based on the results, the Bureau decided that the and subsequent censuses would include only the short-form items and that the ACS would go into full production as soon as funding became available, which occurred in Third, the Census Bureau decided to use modern handheld computer technology for two key census processes: The use of such technology was expected to significantly reduce the amount of paper questionnaires, enumerator timesheets, maps, etc.

The planned rehearsal was already scaled back because of the budgetary constraints of operating for key periods under continuing resolution, previous-fiscal-year-level levels. But, with the early replan, the Bureau could not conduct a nonresponse follow-up operation in its dress rehearsal for the basic reason that the late reversion to paper-based methods left it without a nonresponse follow-up operation to test.

The lack of a full-fledged dress rehearsal left. We discuss the implications of these plans and developments on estimated census costs in Section 2—C. Of course, the effects on completeness of coverage in the census will not be known until after the census and its associated coverage measurement programs are conducted.

Perhaps the most critical driver of decennial census planning and execution is the concern that the census achieve as complete coverage of the population as possible, including not only the total number of inhabitants, but also their distribution by state and other geographic areas and their racial and ethnic composition. Subsequent censuses also raised concerns about coverage—notably, in , complaints of undercounts in New York City and Philadelphia led President Ulysses S.

Grant to order a recount, which, however, added only 2 percent and 2. The dramatic growth in the population of the South between and ultimately led the census office to estimate that the census had undercounted the South by 10 percent and the country as a whole by 3 percent Hacker, b: Since formal coverage evaluation began for selected population groups in the census and for the population as a whole in , two general quality metrics have dominated the discussion.

The first metric is net coverage error,. Because the true values are unknown, competing strategies have been devised to derive approximations—typically through an independent effort to estimate the same population postenumeration survey or derivation of estimates based on birth, death, and migration data demographic analysis.

Due to the historical undercoverage of racial and ethnic minority groups, the second type of quality metric—differential net undercoverage—focuses on the difference between the rate of net undercoverage error for a given demographic group compared with the national rate. Census undercoverage and overcoverage are made up of two general types of errors:. Coverage error may also arise when a nonduplicated resident is counted at the incorrect geographic location. The severity of this latter type of error depends on the degree of geographic displacement and the level of aggregation of interest; depending on those perspectives, geographic misallocations are either moot e.

Table shows estimated net coverage error, by the method of demographic analysis, and the difference in coverage estimates for blacks and all others, for the through censuses. With the exception of , when the net undercoverage rate increased from the previous census, there has been a sustained trend toward more complete coverage of the total population.

Whereas the census had an estimated net undercount rate as high as 5. Estimated net undercount rates for blacks and nonblacks also declined over the period with the exception of the uptick in for both groups , although the difference between black. National Research Council National Research Council a: Demographic analysis does not provide estimates of coverage error for other population groups, such as Hispanics, but coverage rates for those groups appear to have improved as well. Thus, based on postenumeration survey methodology, net undercount decreased from 5 percent in to 0.

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Undoubtedly, the achievements in reducing estimated net undercount and narrowing the differences between estimated net undercount rates for racial and ethnic groups over the — period are due, in no small measure, to the proactive efforts by the Census Bureau, in cooperation with many public- and private-sector organizations, to improve coverage.

As noted above, the addition of coverage improvement operations to the conduct of the census began in and greatly escalated in Yet research has shown that coverage improvement programs not only add people to the census who may have been missed otherwise, but also add people who should not be counted at all or who may have been counted elsewhere.

In , the problem-plagued development of the MAF from multiple sources, some not used in previ-. Estimates of gross errors, including both erroneous enumerations and omissions, are as large as Too much should not be made of the specific numbers, given that some errors are not of consequence for larger areas of geography and given different definitions and methods for estimating gross errors in the two censuses, but, however defined, the census is and has always been far from error-free.

It appears throughout much of the history of the U. However, cost increases from census to census are not written into stone—in fact, real dollar per person or housing unit costs have held steady and even declined in some censuses, as seen in the next section. Yet in the period to , costs have escalated enormously, and the increases appear harder and harder to justify.

Because of this continued growth in census costs, it seems highly likely that containing costs—while maintaining or improving census quality—will and should be a major driver of census planning. In the discussion that follows of historical census costs, it is important to note the difficulties in obtaining comparable cost estimates across time.


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Comparisons can be affected by the choice of a specific price deflator; also, it is not clear that what is included in census costs is strictly comparable from census to census. Thus, the reader should consider the data provided as indicative of the order of magnitude of the costs from one census to the next. The limitations of available census cost data make it difficult to decompose cost increases or decreases by examining specific operations.

Moreover, with few exceptions, there has been little analysis of the cost-benefit ratio, in terms of coverage improvement, of various census operations. Since the first census, the American population has increased manyfold from 3. Hence, it is not surprising that the costs and complexity of the census have increased commensurately.

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There were only about enumerators U. Exceptions occurred for the census, which cost about 30 percent less than the average, and the census, which cost about 60 percent more than the average Anderson, Turning to census costs from to the present, we focus on the magnitude of estimates of real dollar costs per housing unit, which is the appropriate measure for the modern mail census.

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Table shows the estimated per housing unit cost for each census beginning in in both nominal and real dollars. In real terms, the census cost only slightly more than the census, but costs per household increased by over 90 percent from to —the single largest percentage increase in the costs of census-taking since the Census Bureau was established as a permanent agency in The increase from to was only 30 percent, while the increase from to was over 60 percent.

A major factor in the substantial cost increase between the and censuses was that the enumerator workforce more than doubled in size, as did headquarters and processing staff. District field offices also stayed open several months longer on average 6—9 months in compared with 4—6 months and 3—6 months National Research Coun-. Nominal dollars are converted to real dollars by the gross domestic product chain-type price indexes for federal government nondefense consumption expenditures based on Table 3.

Tables to illustrate the increase in the number and extent of such operations by listing the various coverage improvement methods used in the — censuses and planned for the census; because of the length of these tables, they are placed at the end of the chapter and numbered accordingly. The real dollar per housing unit cost increase between and was only a third as much as that between and Some of the same factors contributed to increases as in The final census plan was not confirmed until one year prior to Census Day, following the February U.

Supreme Court decision that sampling as part of the census enumeration violated census law for apportionment counts. Recognizing the difficulties for planning the census caused by the political conflict between Congress and the administration about an appropriate census design, the appropriations for were greatly increased to enable the Census Bureau to hire the necessary staff to throw into the effort—for example, to rewrite software programs that had been developed assuming one design and subsequently had to be revamped for the final design. The census stemmed the decline in the mail response rate, which was an important achievement and also, as noted earlier, produced a close to zero net undercount.

We now review the history of evolving cost estimates of the census. In order to obtain funding for all components of the census reengineering, the Census Bureau produced an initial document on projected lifecycle costs in June U. The first is that the February estimate did not acknowledge the likelihood of cost increases due to the problematic performance of the handheld technology, which was known inside the Bureau but not yet outside it.

The second is that there was no explanation of the changing estimates for conducting a traditional census in between the and estimates. Even more important, there has been no acknowledgement or awareness by the Bureau that forecasting increased costs for the traditional census at a rate of The historical cost data, even with their limitations, make it clear that the biggest increase in census costs occurred between and and also that the next biggest increase—that between and —was due largely to the problems of being forced to plan for and test two different designs for the census.

We see no justifiable basis for projecting traditional census costs as a straight line extrapolation of the average increase over the past few decades. We requested from the Census Bureau its current estimated life-cycle costs for the major activities of the census for comparative purposes, we also requested comparable category costs for the census but were not provided with those data. The provided life-cycle costs provided in June are shown in Table It is apparent that the estimates presented in the table refer strictly to the short-form-only census and not the entire census planning and implementation cycle: Estimates provided to the panel by the U.

Census Bureau, June 4, In spring and summer , the handhelds received their first full field test through their use in the address canvassing operation for the census dress rehearsal.

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Harris was also initially slated to retain full authority for the OCS development, but the responsibility for OCSs other than that for the address canvassing was assumed by the Bureau later in These costs are driven in large part by increases in the numbers of people who will be needed to carry out the Census; these include enumerators and personnel to service the help desks, data centers, and the control system for the paper-based [nonresponse follow-up NRFU ]. There are also additional costs that result from more recent increases in gas prices, postage, and printing.

We understand the difficulties in costing out such an extensive operation as the decennial census, but the Census Bureau should be able to provide information on component operations that is more useful for decomposing the factors that led to the cost estimates prior to and after the problems with the handheld contract. It is also uncertain why comparable figures for the census are not more forthcoming.

Still, the rough level of detail in Table does make clear one basic truth about the cost of census-taking: The table also speaks to the complexity of the census as it is currently conducted in terms of staff and space needs; the entries for office space and staff at Census Bureau headquarters and the regional and local census offices constitute over 40 percent of the total costs. Systematic, time-series information on the lifecycle costs of censuses in countries that conduct a traditional-type census as opposed to relying on a population register, rolling sample, or other means to determine population counts is difficult to obtain.

The snapshots of costs that are available suggest that other countries have also experienced increases in per household or per capita costs in recent census rounds.


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In still other cases, census costs continue to grow but in a somewhat more contained way than the U. The estimated cost per household of the census in the Republic of Korea increased percent from to and percent again from to ; thereafter, Korean census officials have succeeded in bringing the rate of growth down to just over 39 percent for — and — with the average per household cost in being 8, Won or about U.

A useful example is that of Canada, in which fixed costs adjusted for population growth are assumed by census planners and built into census designs. In real Canadian dollars, the per housing unit cost of recent quinquennial censuses in Canada has held stable. To be sure, censuses in other countries are not strictly comparable to the U. That said, as we discuss in Section 3—A. Our historical review has found that census costs will have escalated by more than percent over the period —, even after adjusting for inflation and the growth in housing units.

We have suggested that a major factor in cost escalation is the efforts by the Census Bureau, supported by Congress and the executive branch, to reduce coverage error to the greatest extent possible. Recent censuses have introduced new and seemingly better coverage improvement operations, layering operations to try to get more and better information on specific difficult-to-count population groups: Although these coverage improvement programs have value, they are not cost-free. The consequence for census cost has been a steady accretion of coverage improvement programs and other procedures that—once added—become difficult to subtract, lest census coverage appear to be harmed.

By , the Census Bureau had achieved a major success in reducing levels of net undercoverage, to the point of yielding an estimated zero net. But the focus on net coverage masks significant levels of gross census errors—omissions, duplicate or erroneous enumerations, and geographic displacement—that fell into a delicate near-balance when considered in national net. The results of suggest the importance of studying the nature and extent of gross census errors and further scrutinizing the components of census error. Indeed, they suggest that the census-taking in the United States has reached the point at which the long-standing goal of reducing net undercount is no longer quite apt—that the steady accretion of coverage-building operations needs to be balanced with operations for detecting and filtering duplicates and diagnosis of the unique contributions and gaps in each step of increasing coverage e.

Without research and careful inquiry into the components of error and the contributions of individual operations, the census is arguably at the point at which introducing further complexity to the enumeration process in an effort to reduce net undercoverage could conceivably add more error than it removes as well as adding costs.

If one accepts the premise that cost and quality are two critical factors in the decennial census, then we think that the preceding discussion makes clear the key point that we wish to express in this report: In beginning to conceptualize the census, we think it appropriate to take as a precept that an incremental approach to census planning is simply untenable.

To be sure, the most recent censuses have included significant new additions to methodology and enumeration procedures. If the price decreases, we will simply charge the lower price. Applicable discounts will be extended. An ebook is one of two file formats that are intended to be used with e-reader devices and apps such as Amazon Kindle or Apple iBooks. A PDF is a digital representation of the print book, so while it can be loaded into most e-reader programs, it doesn't allow for resizable text or advanced, interactive functionality.

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View more FAQ's about Ebooks. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Planning for the census is already beginning. This book from the National Research Council examines several aspects of census planning, including questionnaire design, address updating, non-response follow-up, coverage follow-up, de-duplication of housing units and residents, editing and imputation procedures, and several other census operations.

This book recommends that the Census Bureau overhaul its approach to research and development. The report urges the Bureau to set cost and quality goals for the and future censuses, improving efficiency by taking advantage of new technologies. The National Academies Press and the Transportation Research Board have partnered with Copyright Clearance Center to offer a variety of options for reusing our content.

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