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It signals investors to enter the housing market and to build new homes, which is, in fact, a result of biased house prices rather than real scarcity. As a consequence, resources are misallocated — an inefficiently high amount of capital is used in the real estate sector. A bubble could become a real threat to the economy if construction is financed to a large extent by mortgage loans. In case of a bursting price bubble, many households and investors might be overly indebted, which would lead to an increase of bad loans.
However, the threat of a bubble is not assessed unanimously in the public debate. Some authors refer to a descriptive analysis of housing market data and find only little evidence for an overheating of the housing market. On aggregate, neither the multiplier the ratio of the price-to-rental income, see Figure 1 , the price-to-income ratio nor housing starts indicate a misalignment of housing market development to its fundamentals.
- Unternavigation.?
- Is there a bubble in the German housing market?;
- Rondeau: Le Champetre.
This view is shared by Olga Tschekassin, analyst at the Bruegel thinktank Bruegel, However, more elaborate studies on house price movements in Germany are scarce. There are only four papers dealing explicitly with the current market developments — and their findings are mixed. The first study by Chen and Funke analyzes aggregate house price data from to The authors apply a relatively new approach proposed by Phillips et al. The authors conclude that on the aggregate level, no signs for the emergence of a speculative house price bubble can be detected. However, the major shortcoming of this study is the use of nationwide house price information.
As pointed out by several authors, house price dynamics vary significantly across regions Goodman and Thibodeau, ; Hwang and Quigley, Thus, signs of bubbles are hardly detectable in national time series. The authors analyze monthly data of metropolitan house prices from In summary, the authors conclude that the signs for a speculative house price bubble are weak.
However, this study focuses on a very short period of time and some few selected markets, which raises some doubts on the generality of their findings. The most prominently cited work is that of Kajuth et al.